The stock market passed 30K in November, breaking the record. Right now it's at 32,899.37. So it's gone down a little bit.😱 Don't get your panties in a bunch as we're still doing pretty good by all standards, unless you want to cherry pick stuff to discredit some faction or group.

Also, look at bond market forecasts. Everyone from investors to public predictions say it's gonna be rough for maybe a year but from 2-5 years out, it's gonna be just fine, thank you. The sky is not falling. That, and thanks @soix for your sane perspective. And, you too @ghasley .

All the best,
Nonoise

The sky could fall tomorrow (or Monday), we really don't know. Russia could make a move that signal a foreseeable war end or escalation. China could decide it does not need the US. The Chinese domestic market at some point will be much much bigger than the US, and Europe and the US both want to be the top dog, so cooperation is not as good as it could be.

If the interest rate is negative or 2%, if inflation is running a 6-7%, I am still paying someone to hold my money in either case. Similarly 3.4% sounds strong, but in a 6-7% inflation scenario, that is stagflation.

@ghdprentice my point was someone made a comment about living in Japan (or Asia in general where inflation was lower). My comment was there are lots of places in Asia live and be happy, China not being one of those places though.

Back to the market, 30K in Nov, 32.9 in now, 6 months at 7%+ inflation is a 3.5% devaluation. Not much, considering a war is going on.

My concern with valuations is where the near term growth is going to come from to support the forward predicted valuations. Longer term it may be there as India modernizes and drives global growth, but otherwise, there is not the driver that China has been of world consumption coming online.

The fact that the world economy didnt come to a screeching halt in mid-2020 is clear evidence that the monetary policy worked.

It is evidence that an aspect of the fiscal policy worked. That does not mean the fiscal policy was ideal or even close to ideal. Just the fact that we had a massive asset valuation increase during a global pandemic should give you pause. Literally no value was being created, but assets grew i value.  Throw your economic theories and monetary policy aside for a while. That is fundamentally flawed, and anything that fundamentally flawed will eventually crash.

I said that it is a "Buyers’ Market" for audio because when people who own audio equipment are having trouble making ends meet due to inflation and need money,

I do not consider the Fed "borrowing rate increase" to have much effect on used audio, which is what I was talking about in my previous response.

Sorry , I did not really specify that prior.

People can and do sell that "non-essential" Audio Equipment. During these times you will usually find more audio stuff for sale. When there is more of it out there for sale, the supply goes up. The seller has more competition. Less people are buying because they are strapped for cash, so demand is down. It is harder to make a sale, therefore prices go down. This makes it a "Buyers Market"...Doesn’t it ???

It is a good time to buy audio equipment at lower prices. seller need to Move their product to get cash.

Am I wrong ?

I am especially talking about used audio equipment

Similarly 3.4% sounds strong, but in a 6-7% inflation scenario, that is stagflation.

Yeah except 7% inflation is a temporary situation caused by covid. And you’re confusing terms. 3.4% nominal growth IS strong, its real GDP growth that’s weak, but that’s a different concept entirely and doesn’t change the fact that nominal GDP growth is strong. In a few months the CPI comps to last year alone are gonna dramatically reduce inflation, and as supply channels gradually open inflation will fall even further and we’ll still have an economy growing at above 3%. And BTW, this is NOT stagflation — it’s economic growth accompanied by temporarily high inflation. Stagflation is persistent high inflation with high unemployment and stagnant demand , and that is not even close to what we have here. Just sayin’.

“J. P. Morgan tells the story of how he would get his shoes shined every Wednesday at the same shop around the corner from his office. One day the shoe shine attendant asked him if he and his friends could buy some stock through Morgan’s brokerage. The three friends had about $40—a lot of money in 1929. Morgan politely refused, hurried back to his office, and ordered that his company was not to have a single share of stock on its books by the end of the day. Morgan simply asked, “If the shoe shine boys are buying stocks, who else is left?” Of course, the 1929 stock market crash was only a few days away, and Morgan looked like a genius. He was not a genius; he noted that the order flow was likely running out on the buy side. It wasn’t his army of analysts that showed him that. It was a public investor.”

Two other great quotes: “Remember, my son, that any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke.” and my favorite; “Nothing so undermines your financial judgement as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.”