@soix excellent points. You make far more sense and have much better logic than the talking heads on the financial/business news - and most all on the Street. Please feel free to update on your economic insights and analyses as you see fit.
- ...
- 117 posts total
The stock market may cause a few potential buyers to sit on the sidelines. Maybe a larger issue is shipping cost. People have a value in mind for a piece of gear and if shipping has doubled or tripled… especially hundreds of dollars, it could be an issue to those thinking delivered price. As usual though, well reviewed gear and rarely resold gear will hold its value a little better. |
Thanks @ideal8592 I know I’m in the minority among the financial talking heads, but IME and as mentioned before, significant financial/economic downturns are caused by four factors: Recession, over valuation/significant bubble, high inflation/interest rates, or some major exogenous geopolitical event or environmental disaster. Our current situation was obviously caused by Covid shutting down supply lines and Russia’s war on Ukraine raising food and energy prices. Before those exogenous events inflation was all but non existent due to global competition and technology containing and/or driving prices lower. In lawyer speak, “but for” those two exogenous variables we were looking at continued low inflation, low interest rates, and good economic growth, which is the perfect environment for stocks. I still view our current environment to be an anomaly (albeit a very potent one) and once the two exogenous variables subside — and they will probably sooner rather than later — inflation and interest rates will tumble and stocks will once again take off. This assumes the Fed doesn’t do something monumentally stupid like continuing to hike rates into the stratosphere to try to tame this temporary spike in inflation and sending our economy into a completely unnecessary recession. As I mentioned to my B-school buddies, I’d much rather have a job and complain about high prices than not have a job and pay lower prices. We do agree that if you have the fortitude to stay the course and/or average down into particularly good stock values now you’ll be very happy you did so a year from now, but there’s likely to be a lot of noise and volatility between now and then so hold on for the bumpy ride. Bottom line and as counterintuitive as it sounds now, the base case of low inflation and moderate growth is still there under the surface and should prevail once the temporary exogenous variables subside. Just my take FWIW. |
Just to bring this back around to the original subject, given the supply constraints wrought largely by China shutting down operations to control Covid, both new and used audio gear prices are likely to be high until things loosen up. If you can wait you’ll likely find better prices in both markets a year or so from now, or whenever more “normal” supply returns to the market. |
Soix, you are right on the money. I bought new speakers, used preamp , and ordered a new amp in the height of Covid. I got a great deal on my preamp , bought new speakers when they were first released , before the real supply chain issues. I amp still waiting on amp but it’s right around the corner. I don’t think I could have built this system now , a year later without spending a lot more |
- 117 posts total