I dont mind a litle friendly banter over the whole Bluray/HD-DVD thingee- so I'll play devils advocate.
1. People will want to buy DVDs of the movies they want to see. If the Blockbuster hits ( if there are any) in 2006 come from HD-DVD aligned studios, people will buy the player that will display it, assuming they are even interested in hi def DVDs at all or even care or understand.
2. The Blu Ray players start at 2x the price of HD-DVD players , and most that I saw were at 1800 bucks. ( yes I saw one player at 1000._) There are MANY more blu ray manufacturers of players, and many more mouths to feed as well. The Blu Ray disks cost per disc, despite a few off the mark quotes, are definetly more expensive to produce and will sell at a higher price point than HD-DVDs, at least intially. Or someone is gonna take a loss. Average American Will not go with the more expensive option. It doesnt work that way on the whole, and online forum members who may be more tech savvy and interested in blu-ray capabilities and features are a pimple on the larger scale of reality.
3. HD-DVD can be stamped on the B side with a standard def DVD. HUGE advantage. That means I can buy an HD-DVD today and be ready for tomorrow. While still be cool with my current equipment. this is a BIG deal.
I think there are definite bucks in XBOX and PS3 ( I am still freaked by that PS# demo-you had to see the thing)- but I do believe that fundamentally its about movie titles and what consumers want to rent and buy. It is NOT a 90/10 split with regards to title availability.
4. Microsoft has been clear that they won't support blu-ray. And When the most ubiqutous operating system in the world ( like it or not) decides something like this, it obviates a whole lot of other players in the game as far as their affected markets.
