That is the estimate that is coming from just about every expert you can name or find. across the entire planet. the eventual outcome of a peak curve or a flattened curve long term curve. It matters not. All predict the same, on average % of infected in a given population/group.
The fast peak (large numbers infected at once), if not flattened out via mitigation of the spread..that possible peak of percentage of infected, is generally considered to be a higher % than without mitigation or slowing of the infected.
The slow or slow ramp up run to the possibly near identical % (but possibly lower %) of overall infected has less people dying, and is the preferred scenario. Simply due to the slowed infection rate over time allowing hospitals to have time and resource to respond.
So, two doorways, both ugly. The fast nasty one, or the drip drip drip slow one.
Interestingly enough, this will very likely drop the number of influenza fatalities across the planet, in a notable way.
Extrapolating from the infections vs fatalities in the USA, in the specific timing of all of it.....using other scenarios of outcomes, indicates that low levels of testing in the USA has created a scenario where community spread is higher than it seems.
This means a large number of detected infections in a very short time frame --is coming for the USA. Meaning something closer to the current situation in Italy is in store for the USA, vs the more desirable situation of South Korea...(Korea: earlier widespread detection, means a lower overall death rate [via better control of infection rates] and less likely to overwhelm the health care system)
the only way America can get ahead of this thing and slow it down so it does not overwhelm healthcare and kill many at once via the overload... is through massive levels of testing, like Korea. today. Literally, today. Yesterday would have been better. spray the test bullets around now, as widely and as wisely as possible, or pay the price. Spend/use all the test kits now, as they are making more constantly.
Italy figured out this wise Korean proactive action and act, just a little to late, and are now paying the price in the form of a deadly peak. One where they are just letting people die. No choice.
These people testing have to come to your door like the galwdamn KGB, FBI and the SS all rolled into one, and have the authority to make whatever move and motion they want, stick. As, in the end, if a sharp peak happens, they will get the authority, regardless. But the people will resist, most likely, until the mass dying of the at risk groups actually happens. But someone should grab a hold of this and push it through (as an act), regardless.
As that is what is going on in places like India, right now. Look at the organization of their culture and social situations. The density. The complexity. They have zero choice but to proactively move among their population, detaining and laying down decisions of absolute power on the individual level, like uber killer snakes on a feverish mission. If they don’t... their country falls apart. In a few short weeks. so the hard push is now, dammit, now. They’ve dealt with it before and they know this method works, so they hit the red extreme button, immediately. And they may manage to mitigate it. Maybe.
