Pretty much any metropolitan area that has not implemented strict measures had a large outbreak, and even with strict measures, the outbreaks are significant. To say we don't know if they are related is ludicrous, based on available data we have for this virus already.
While antibody rates are higher then expected, the sampling so far is minimal, and there is nothing to indicate a mortality overall of at least 1%, which if 50% of the US became infected, would be 1.6 million people, except it would end up being much higher because at that infection rate, the hospitals would be overwhelmed and the death rate would go up. It is because of the effectiveness of distancing measures this has been avoided. It is so easy to see in the graphs the direct impacts of these measures. To claim we can say that for sure is ludicrous.
There is no evidence, beyond some weak anecdotal evidence, of it being around longer than thought, except maybe a few weeks to a month. See the post I made earlier about the choir practice and how supercarriers can infect huge numbers in close quarters. Look at meat packing plant infection rates. If it had been around longer, these things would have been happening.
Epidemiology and medical doctor are not the same skill set as well. It really gives you little in the way of special skills to predict what will happen. Someone good at math, statistics and modelling will be far better qualified.
How do cases get found in those that strictly isolated? ... 1) They were not as strict as claimed (or most likely thought). 2) The incubation period can be longer than 2 weeks.
Walmarts are grocery stores.
Well that's just the problem. First, as you say, came the dire
predictions. They did not pan out. Not anywhere close. You suggest that
is because of the stringent response. But, as a physician you understand
that because two things are true does not mean they are related. And in
the case of stay at home orders, shutting down schools and closing
businesses (but not Walmart of course) there is no solid evidence that
it worked or even could work. Recent data of testing all the members of
large groups is showing that large percentages of those testing positive
were completely asymptomatic. Much larger than previously thought. This
shows several things including that the virus is more pervasive than
previously thought, less deadly than previously thought and probably
around longer than thought. This, coupled with the fact that an
increasing number of cases are being found in those who have strictly
followed social isolation as well as new cases in nursing homes that
have followed strict guidelines.