Did vinyl sales just hit the proverbial brick wall?

Regarding the trend of LP sales - The increase in sales has gone on long enough to remove any doubt that this is a fad. That doesn't mean that sales won't level out or even decline somewhat but to say that the industry is killing vinyl is absolutely laughable.

Regarding the manufacturing issues of vinyl - LPs are far more difficult and costly to manufacture than CDs. Watch a couple videos from a record plant and you can see that there is a lot of labor involved. Each machine can only stamp one record at a time and it is an agonizingly slow process. The stampers are expensive and mechanically fussy. The steps to make the metal master are also labor intensive and each unit must be carefully inspected by a carbon based life form. LPs are made with an inherently expensive, labor intensive, and difficult-to-automate process. I didn't even mention the cost of the album sleeve.

Artist & Label Revenue - Yes, LPs are a premium product. It is extremely difficult to make money in today's music environment and even a fairly popular band will only receive a pittance from streaming. LPs are a major source of income for the band and the label needs to make money too. When you buy a new LP you are saying to the artist that you value their work and that you are willing to pay them a little bit of money for it. It irritates me that people like the article's author expect everything for minimal or free cost. Except for the rarefied upper level of artists (Taylor Swift, Harry Styles, et al.) the bands and performers we love don't make a lot of money.  Please don't begrudge them a few dollars from an LP.

The author of the article has a poor understanding of manufacturing and a worse understanding of the music industry. The LP business has nothing to with the mass market strategy he espouses. Nobody expects the volume of LP sales to grow to hundreds of millions of units per year. It's a boutique business catering to enthusiasts. It's like saying that Ferrari should mass produce its cars, lower the price to $20,000 per vehicle, and increase sales to a million cars per year. In other words, Ted Gioia is an idiot when it comes to business. I would not trust him to tell me how to run a coffee stand, let alone the entire music industry.

Love the ridiculous notion that this fad will fade as all the baby boomers fade away(die). I have several large record stores within a 20 minutes or less drive from my house in North Dallas, most 90% of the patrons are 30 to 45 years old and these stores are always busy. Talking to one of the principals of the business he said that their stores in Denver and KC are tcontinuing to grow at double digit rates and the demographic is similar. Also their e-commerce business is off the charts.

The notion that young people want to listen to music on their “telephones” (man you’re old “devices”) is valid to a point, portability is key and we are more active. Once these 20 something’s have some disposable income they may come learn more about higher end audio.

To understand the nature of recorded music consumption one needs to break it down into endpoints and the drivers associated with them. Consumption endpoints characteristics include fixed vs mobile and solo vs shared. Mobile further breaks down into portable, e.g. earbuds, ANC headphones, and automotive. Fixed subcategories include HiFi, distributed (e.g. smart speakers), and commercial (e.g. supermarkets and dentist offices). Records are limited to, borrowing a term from aviation, fixed base operations, whether personal (headphones) or shared (speakers). Mobile personal requires a device and earbuds or headphones; mobile shared requires a vehicle. Vinyl was and is a niche requiring a fixed base but offers a unique physically engaging experience many find more enjoyable. Streaming will succeed as it can be fixed, or portable, but requires an internet connection. The final mode, now struggling, is broadcast, which can be enjoyed across all endpoints, but lacks the granular personal choice of other media. It’s real strength in forming a cohort has largely been subsumed by social media - disk jockeys were the influencers of their day. Picking one age group or one consumption endpoint, or worse one metric, and generalizing out of context from there is faulty logic at best.

@mijostyn we agree to disagree. Yes, it's not green. Partly why I feel better buying used.

I would say vinyl does when hifi dies. We'll have lemon groves in Minnesota before that happens.