Macdadtexas,
So what you are saying is that the downloads are good enough for you now, and that it will probably be good enough for everyone else soon... end of (your) story.
I honestly think that there is a lot of work needed to make high quality downloads as user friendly as plopping a disk into a player and pushing the "play" button. The downloaded audio is nowhere near the same level of resolution as BluRay, where the difference can even be detected by non-audiophiles listening to very modest Theater-in-a-Box BluRay systems, let alone listening to the Oppo or higher level players feeding a modest to extravagant audiophile system.
But the real issue here is video quality and many more people are able to detect and care about differences in video resolution compared with audio resolution, why I think BluRay has a better chance in the marketplace vs downloads than SACD vs iTunes. For now, BluRay is 50% higher video resolution (1080p) than what is available from downloads (720p at best), noticeable even on modest sized HD screens (except I will grant you that the smaller Pioneer plasma screens at 720p have such great color and image depth, you might forgive them their lower level of resolution).
For the occasional viewer of movies, a decent 40" or larger screen with a BluRay in-a-Box theater system, both available from Costco for well under $1500, playing a BluRay disk will provide the highest level of enjoyment per ongoing $ invested hands down - without the added HD download subscription costs. Increase the quality of the playback components from there and BluRay totally kicks a$$. The question you will ask is - who cares?
I suggest that the combination of familiar technology (disk and player versus download and local storage) and noticeably higher video performance will create a useful product life cycle for BluRay. Interestingly, the BluRay format will likely receive the greatest support, at least initially, from opposite ends of the consumer spectrum. High level consumers who want the very best audio and video performance will or have already opted in, and those entry level consumers who are least comfortable with computers, networks and online services or who don't want or can't afford the extra expense of HD downloads services will choose BluRay. What I will call here the "iPhone generation" will gravitate to downloads first because they are A) comfortable with networks, downloads and attracted to shiny new gadgets and formats, B) accepting of low resolution video and audio as long as they can get it "NOW", and C) tolerant of or oblivious to exorbitant monthly subscription charges.
Finally, even if the majority of people eventually go to downloads as the preferred source for regular viewing, they will want a system to view disks and share media (it is less rewarding to wrap a gift certificate with a download code and put it under the tree in December) and with DVDs being replaced on store shelves with BluRay disks, that will be the format used for fixed media going forward into the foreseeable future.
