Please pardon a newbie for butting in - I have been an Audiogon member for some time, and have bought several items (and sold one) through the exchange, but haven't ever commented before. But I have found this series on the future of hi-fi interesting, and it got me thinking...
I went to undergrad from 1976 to 1980 at Michigan State -- I had spent my high school years in the band, and fell in love with classical music listening to Tchaikovsky and Beethoven on my parents' miserable Panasonic all-in-one with cheap plastic speakers. I bought and took a $180.00 Realistic stereo with me to college -- and immediately encountered a fellow student on my floor with a rig composed of Pioneer electronics, a Technics turntable,Audio-Technica cartridge and Advent speakers that produced music that was, for me, a revelation -- I didn't know recorded music could sound that good. I was hooked good and proper -- I read High Fidelity and Stereo Review and Audio assiduously, worshipped at the shrine of Julian Hirsch, and over the next thirty years continually upgraded, and upgraded, and upgraded, to my tolerant wife's amusement.
But that was then, and some very important things have changed (besides the demise or transformation of all three of those magazines) that mean those days probably aren't coming back. Reaching today's young adults means different marketing, different pricing practices, and a different product mix. I work in a business where we pay a lot of attention to the current generation of college students and graduated twenty-somethings, and here are some hard, inconvenient truths (apologies to Mr. Gore) that I think audio marketers ignore at their peril --
1. Precisely because of the cost of tuition that Audiogon bill mentions, these folks have no money -- on average, college, both public and private, costs 2 and half times what it did in 1980 in constant dollars -- that's right, AFTER inflation. Many college kids, and their families, who would have been "paying as they go" in 1980 are now in hock up to their eyeballs sending the kids to college. And the kids are coming out with large, non-dischargeable-in-bankrutpcy debt that is draining their disposable income.
2. The jobs these kids are finding as they leave college tend to be low-paying, with in many cases little upward mobility. We are seeing the college-educated defer home buying, marriage and children because they can't afford any of them.
3. And these kids aren't borrowers, outside of student loans and car loans. They are renting, not buying, real estate and they have had it hammered into them (correctly) by the schools that only an idiot carries balances on a credit card. They like debit cards and cash money management. They are expecting to live a simpler existence than their parents, and are acting accordingly, purchasing inexpensive or used furniture and focusing on quality of life, rather than acquisition of goods.
4. Beyond the availability of disposable income, there are cultural changes. When my third child went to college, I asked her if she would like to take some of my excess stereo equipment with her for a bookshelf system -- like me, she enjoys classical music and jazz (bear in mind also that she had grown up in a house with a succession of increasingly mid to high-end stereo systems, so she had been plenty exposed to "good sound"). She declined, explaining that it would be rude to play her music so that it disrupted her roommate or others in her dorm -- it was considered polite to listen to music privately. Besides, she said, she felt the music sounded better on her iPod and headphones anyway.
5. Another cultural shift -- these young adults are used to researching and purchasing online, from retailers like Amazon and Lands End that sell at low mark-ups and offer "no questions asked" returns.
What does all this mean? To me, it seems to suggest a few things:
1. Anyone wanting to sell these young adults "audiophile" equipment is going to have to seriously reconsider price points and profit margins. Consider that a high end Apple laptop may be had for $1600.00, and a high end PC laptop for far less -- and these are, for many young adults, the most expensive things they purchase besides a car. The first person who tries to sell these folks a $5000 stereo rig and calls it "affordable" is going to get laughed out of the room. This generation will need to be approached on their own terms, and with a clear understanding of their reality (remember, GE initially couldn't sell refrigerators in Japan because it was trying to sell U.S.-sized refrigerators to people living in 800 square foot apartments).
2. And that means Mechans may well have the right idea -- equipment that embraces computer-based music files and integrates with it, including headphone amplifiers and high quality headphones, offered at far lower markups than current fare, may have the best chance of gaining attention and market share -- especially if it is re-badged with brand names, like Apple or Dr. Dre, that this generation will recognize.
3. Add to that that these folks do an awful lot of their purchasing online, and it suggests that successful marketers may be those that offer direct sales with 30-day trial periods. Getting these folks to visit a "dealer" may be a forlorn proposition.
Just some random thoughts from the peanut gallery.
I went to undergrad from 1976 to 1980 at Michigan State -- I had spent my high school years in the band, and fell in love with classical music listening to Tchaikovsky and Beethoven on my parents' miserable Panasonic all-in-one with cheap plastic speakers. I bought and took a $180.00 Realistic stereo with me to college -- and immediately encountered a fellow student on my floor with a rig composed of Pioneer electronics, a Technics turntable,Audio-Technica cartridge and Advent speakers that produced music that was, for me, a revelation -- I didn't know recorded music could sound that good. I was hooked good and proper -- I read High Fidelity and Stereo Review and Audio assiduously, worshipped at the shrine of Julian Hirsch, and over the next thirty years continually upgraded, and upgraded, and upgraded, to my tolerant wife's amusement.
But that was then, and some very important things have changed (besides the demise or transformation of all three of those magazines) that mean those days probably aren't coming back. Reaching today's young adults means different marketing, different pricing practices, and a different product mix. I work in a business where we pay a lot of attention to the current generation of college students and graduated twenty-somethings, and here are some hard, inconvenient truths (apologies to Mr. Gore) that I think audio marketers ignore at their peril --
1. Precisely because of the cost of tuition that Audiogon bill mentions, these folks have no money -- on average, college, both public and private, costs 2 and half times what it did in 1980 in constant dollars -- that's right, AFTER inflation. Many college kids, and their families, who would have been "paying as they go" in 1980 are now in hock up to their eyeballs sending the kids to college. And the kids are coming out with large, non-dischargeable-in-bankrutpcy debt that is draining their disposable income.
2. The jobs these kids are finding as they leave college tend to be low-paying, with in many cases little upward mobility. We are seeing the college-educated defer home buying, marriage and children because they can't afford any of them.
3. And these kids aren't borrowers, outside of student loans and car loans. They are renting, not buying, real estate and they have had it hammered into them (correctly) by the schools that only an idiot carries balances on a credit card. They like debit cards and cash money management. They are expecting to live a simpler existence than their parents, and are acting accordingly, purchasing inexpensive or used furniture and focusing on quality of life, rather than acquisition of goods.
4. Beyond the availability of disposable income, there are cultural changes. When my third child went to college, I asked her if she would like to take some of my excess stereo equipment with her for a bookshelf system -- like me, she enjoys classical music and jazz (bear in mind also that she had grown up in a house with a succession of increasingly mid to high-end stereo systems, so she had been plenty exposed to "good sound"). She declined, explaining that it would be rude to play her music so that it disrupted her roommate or others in her dorm -- it was considered polite to listen to music privately. Besides, she said, she felt the music sounded better on her iPod and headphones anyway.
5. Another cultural shift -- these young adults are used to researching and purchasing online, from retailers like Amazon and Lands End that sell at low mark-ups and offer "no questions asked" returns.
What does all this mean? To me, it seems to suggest a few things:
1. Anyone wanting to sell these young adults "audiophile" equipment is going to have to seriously reconsider price points and profit margins. Consider that a high end Apple laptop may be had for $1600.00, and a high end PC laptop for far less -- and these are, for many young adults, the most expensive things they purchase besides a car. The first person who tries to sell these folks a $5000 stereo rig and calls it "affordable" is going to get laughed out of the room. This generation will need to be approached on their own terms, and with a clear understanding of their reality (remember, GE initially couldn't sell refrigerators in Japan because it was trying to sell U.S.-sized refrigerators to people living in 800 square foot apartments).
2. And that means Mechans may well have the right idea -- equipment that embraces computer-based music files and integrates with it, including headphone amplifiers and high quality headphones, offered at far lower markups than current fare, may have the best chance of gaining attention and market share -- especially if it is re-badged with brand names, like Apple or Dr. Dre, that this generation will recognize.
3. Add to that that these folks do an awful lot of their purchasing online, and it suggests that successful marketers may be those that offer direct sales with 30-day trial periods. Getting these folks to visit a "dealer" may be a forlorn proposition.
Just some random thoughts from the peanut gallery.