Blockbuster goes Blu-ray, HD DVD=beta?,

Actually there is more overall content available on HD-DVD than Blu Ray- there is almost no adoption of Blu Ray among European studios, and none in Asia as well. Blu Ray is actually inferior technology; The disks are more difficult to author ( thats why there are so few game titles for Playstation three). Also, the generational steps of Blu Ray hardware is causing early obsolescence among early adopter Blu Ray player buyers. A very expensive waste for them. Blu Rays hunger for hard drives space and processing is a burden and factors directly into its higher cost than HD-DVD. Its not better- its just more expensive to build to do the same thing HD-DVD already does.

The lower production costs of HD-DVD players is the reason they cost less- nothing else. AS far as studio adoption--its a 60% vs 90% issue among American studios. Its more about which studios have the more popular movies- not who theoretically can make the most-- both sides have large catalogs and can produce mass numbers of Hi Def re-releases for years.

The lower production costs both for players and disks means HD_DVD will win this in the end, and the lack of any international support for Blu Ray to speak of seals the deal.

I am all for a bunch of dual-format players. That makes it easy---but it will be a bit too late before that becomes ubiquitous among offerings. Barring unforeseen change ( which could happen)- its HD-DVDs game to win come Christmas and the Walmart adoption of lower cost chinese made HD-DVD players. There are no blu ray licenses in China for Hardware-- and that dog dont bark-- as they say.

If you can't make electronic in CHina, then you cant compete on price, and you wont succeed in the mass market.

shadorne,
i work for best buy and they are close to even as far as how much it costs for the store...
thing is hd dvd players can sell for less because they can make more money with their discs because they cost so much less to make than a blu ray disc

blu ray has to make some profit because of the higher cost to produce the discs by selling their superior players for a higher price... :)

Blu-ray has a lot of potential, they haven't even finished hashing out the standards for it, but HD-DVD is pretty much fully available now. A HD-DVD player is a not too different from a standard DVD player. You can pick up a regular DVD player from China in Target for $30 these days. CD was audio only so adding video took a bit more for the manufacturers' leap to DVD. Now with HD-DVD all that is needed to step from a reg. DVDP is a different laser and higher resolution. It isn't anywhere near the leap CDPs to DVDPs was. I remember 15 years ago when DVD players came with free movies too. It was hardly the signal of the end for DVD players. 25 years ago the Chinese CE manufacturing wasn't a force at all. Factor that into how long it took the CD technology to come down in price. I would also take into account that the CD paved the way for acceptance of the silver disc as a media. DVD didn't have to overcome that unknown media hurdle.

Someone somewhere else suggested that if HD-DVD gets down to $150 or less people will be buying them to up-convert all the standard DVDs they already own and can readily rent and they won't care if at $150 it loses the format war.

Rysa-4,

The lower production costs both for players and disks means HD_DVD will win this in the end, and the lack of any international support for Blu Ray to speak of seals the deal.

Quite possibly. However my premise (which may indeed be wrong) is that easy low cost technology with less security will result in more piracy and more competion from small studios. Therefore what you say are all major advantages for pirates/small players but not something big American studios are likely to be happy about (as they can't enforce effective piracy protection in many overseas countries and the lower barriers to production allow small independent studios to compete, even if they ship low volumes). The no China licenses you mention for Blu-ray may be part of a strategy to protect the content provider...so cheap is not always desirable...just look at the markup on "cables" in Circuit City and other electronics category retailors...

I mentioned that someone has ALREADY hacked HD-DVD about six months ago using a computer...given the China mass manufacuring of HD-DVD's how long will it be before PC owners everwhere can by an HD-DVD burner and burn their own pirated HD-DVD's...

I remember 15 years ago when DVD players came with free movies too.

That's quite an accomplishment, as the DVD spec wasn't even finalized until Dec. 1995, the DVD Forum didn't form until May 1997. Some early machines may have hit the market around 1996, but disks and players didn't become generally available until 1998 and most players were still $1K and up. :-)

I bought my first DVD player in July 2000, and it included 2 or 3 free DVDs. In fact, progressive scan DVD players just began to hit the market around August that year. At that time many video rental stores were just starting to offer DVDs, and it was still a couple years before they pushed VHS off the bulk of the racks.

It's hard to believe that the DVD--revolutionary as it was--is being replaced after about 8 years on the market and 4-5 years of market dominance.