Word on the street is the hackers have already cracked Blu-ray but there is no way to efficiently move that much data on the Internet ... whats the point if it's going to be compressed into Xvid or DivxX? I suppose they did it just to take a whack at Sony's copy protection. No question it will be cracked and copied but only when it's the dominant force and DVD releases are no longer available. Part of my job is managing the computer labs at a mid sized college. I have had a few deviant young employees over the last few years and I seem to get a lot of info out of that group. Most of the computer geek kids come to me for work ... the whole copyright theft issue really sickens me at times. I have argued with these kids and there seems to be a real attitude that copyrighted material is FREE. We had to take extreme proactive measures to keep the college out of trouble with this issue. Time after time they found ways around it - I got fed up with being nice. We have a philosophy where I work, that the students are our customers and I try hard not to limit content. We ended up throttling certain notorious protocols down to the absolute minimum. They can load a bit torrent client or Limewire but it will take a week to get a single track or large file. If you get caught you get booted. Forget stealing movies.
This much is for sure; whatever format gets selected it will be cracked and copyrighted material will be available for free. When the Blu-ray burners (or some other 25-50 gig capacity format disc) are available cheap for the PC and Mac look out. I think you can get them for about $800 right now. The Blu-Ray players might be able to temporarily stop the piracy but my guess is the pirates will just convert formats and stream a high definition feed through a PC or Mac right to their TV. Im no format expert but wouldnt it be interesting if the HD-DVD format concentrated on the computer market and created really cheap burners. Could they possibly dominate the computer market? Drop the price to $150 for a writer and mass market the media at 50 cents a disc? Dump all the copy protection stuff and just go for mass storage. From a computer persons point of view I would sure like to see cheap 50 gig archival storage on a single disc costing less than a buck.
Am I way off base ?