Tariffs and sky high audio prices.

@millercarbon

Excellent points all. Your examples are all relevant and reasonably accurate. Debt is a big deal worldwide and defaults trigger some amazing ripples and a few tsunamis from time to time. The nice thing about some debt though is watching the reset. What we have never seen in world history though is an intentional default from a nuclear power. You could argue that Russia was a hybrid but I might suggest they were just trying to find a few loaves of bread after wall fell and the Long Term Capital Management collapse.

The one child policy was effective for China, slowing the exponential and unsustainable population growth while allowing them to get infrastructure and food production to at least a manageable level. Their birthrate is now somewhere between Japan on the lower end and the USA on the higher end, a little more than 1.5 children per capita IIRC.

Once again, China’s international holdings and trade reach rivals ours. The EU will trade with them. Period. The EU was formed to try to establish a trading block to rival us. Whether it stays together remains to be seen but its allegiances will drift further away from the politeness assumed by the US/UK. Additionally, the wave of nationalist/far right movements throughout the world jeopardizes free trade and reasonable discourse.

We all have a ringside seat and it will interesting to witness. This is far bigger than steel but the Chinese will not have to capitulate. Frankly I would be quite worried if they did. That would mean to me that they are buying more time to position.

The U.S. economy needn’t be destroyed by another country’s actions or policies. A natural disaster(ie: Cascadia Subduction Zone, San Andreas Fault, Yellowstone Caldera, etc), or anything(on either coast) that even temporarily wiped out the electronic funds transfer records, regarding the billions of Dollars, moved EVERY day, via wire, would do the job. Every American citizen, would then be responsible, for what they owe the government. They’d pay, one way or the other. For such as can comprehend the significance: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/10/this-is-how-much-debt-your-country-has-per-person/ Those are simply facts. Digest them, as you please. As I quoted earlier, "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Someone recently added that(somehow), “its different this time”. They forgot, "IT CAN’T HAPPEN HERE!" Only time will tell. Could be another 200 years, or- tomorrow. Hopefully, we won’t be around to see the results of the current, tragic level of willful ignorance, so prevalent in this nation. "Misc Audio" thread qualifier: Except for my Canadian phono stage, everything in my home system is USA made.

The surplus of labor - the central tenet of capitalism- was realized in China. Wages were minimal. Production cheap. We bought their junk. They win.

@oregonpapa

Yeah, things seemed so simple in 1956 but it wasn’t all that great if you happened to be non-white. In the USA, the systematic exclusion in the participation of this group in the prosperity of the American dream is well chronicled and beaten to death. We are actually in the midst of the “correction” of that which will take place over the decades to come. Those of Hispanic origin are on the cusp of being the largest ethnicity in the USA, if its not already. The African American group has alot of catching up to do economically but its hard when you factor mass incarceration. As a nation, we incarcerate more non violent offenders than the rest of the developed world. Its mind boggling and mind bogglingly expensive not to mention inhumane. An interesting data point, the amount of US GDP allocated to the penal system here today rivals non war military spending from the time of Eisenhower.

While on the subject people of color throughout the world and the injustices for centuries inflicted upon them, a great deal of the financial data that gets analyzed from history is so skewed that I hardly consider it valid. What data makes any sense from 1860? In the south there wasn’t much cost of labor to factor huh? The Irish were excluded to a large degree and all groups were exploited and grossly underpaid. The latter part of that century marked westward expansion fueled on the backs of immigrant Chinese who were excluded otherwise at every opportunity. The example cited wisely by @millercarbon mentioned the opium wars. Imagine that, Britain invaded China to force them to accept opium for trade payments rather than the silver that was agreed upon. 

I’m too lazy to do the research but when I was in grad school I recall vividly that the GDP of the west (Europe/US) was likely overstated by double digit percentages for the century from 1830 to 1930 due to colonial exploitation of other peoples throughout the globe. Back to the mid 1950’s now Frank. Clinically speaking, it was a great time for the bottom half of the caucasian populace to get ahead. Top tax rates forced investment and there weren’t alot of Rockefellers or Mellons looking to build roads or hammer nails. Fast forward to today and I can understand that the descendants of that middle class that emerged feel threatened. They should from an economic standpoint because the economy values what it values and labor is cheap....elsewhere. Those same Indians and Chinese who were once exploited by the west are willing to work and work hard for alot less than a typical worker from the west. We can argue about quality of work as a differentiator, higher productivity and the moral intangibles we like to pronounce but the reality is their cost of living is less and their willingness to work for a lower amount makes competing economically with their manufacturing base quite difficult. When you hear a politician or a protectionist talking head stating “they should pay a living wage so we are going to slap tariffs on them until they do” are actually saying they should have to build in the decades of wage growth that has been accumulated here. Not gonna happen.

So, is an Indian or Chinese company not going to sell their steel or their cars into the rest of the world because someone with a 4 year shelf life in Washington is trying to raise their approval rating? Do you believe a country with nukes is worried about defaulting on some debt to Citibank? As long as there is someone else in the world willing to loan they aren’t and there is always someone willing to loan. Trying to measure net debt is an interesting thing at the macro level. Who really owes whom? The music stops and only then you discover how few WERE in a net positive on the books. I’m a pretty passive guy and not at all of the half empty camp but I really do believe this time is different. I view myself as a citizen trying to do his part. I pay my bills early, have absolutely no debt, help others when I can and most of all, I don’t get bent out of shape when change is inevitable. Spend any time in the rest of the world and you will discover that the most important change that has happened is the free and unfiltered flow of information. The narrative that we are here to help and spread the gift of western prosperity is not going to cut it any more. That was colonialism 2.0 and the developing world is on to it...we educated their leaders here and they aren’t buying it. They won’t be bullied going forward.

@rodman99999

Excellent comments. I respectfully challenge your US made assertion. Maybe that’s what you intended...to buy US made only but I am 99.9 certain that whatever you happen to have in your system, something contains “ingredients” that are not 100% US.