Fed rate increase = lower hifi prices?

@cd318

Some of still remember 2008 when we were told that it was either plan A or bust! There was no plan B.

In my experience as an analyst on Wall Steet, there are five major factors that lead to big problems and big market capitulation: Overvaluation, recession or other significant economic imbalance, persistent high inflation, some bubble somewhere, or some catastrophic exogenous global or geopolitical event. The first four, in my opinion, are not in play, and unless the Ukraine crisis expands beyond that country’s borders then it’s not a big enough event to create a major global disruption. In 2008 there was a clear and significant bubble in real estate that had significant ripple effects throughout the economy that also rightly rocked the financial markets, but there’s nothing like that present now. Unless one of the five issues above becomes a bigger problem I’m not worried, FWIW.

@soix   You don't see the factors you mention as being present now????

No, at least not to any extent they pose any danger.  Now, if rates were to spike enough to risk a recession that’d certainly be a big problem, but I don’t see that in the current environment.  If you look back, it’s extremely unlikely for the US to go into a recession with rates around 3%, which makes perfect sense.  Now, if the 10-year gets up closer to 4% I’d need to start to reevaluate depending on inflation, etc.  We’ll just have to wait and see, but for reasons I mentioned earlier I believe current inflation rates are temporary.  The bond market is extremely smart, and if it thought we’re looking at sustained 6%+ inflation the 10-year would be a helluva lot higher than 3%.  Just MHO and again FWIW. 

Nazi Germany printed money to pay the war  reparations

The bill was not tied to gold British pounds,french francs or us dollars it was only in there own currency. So they printed money like crazy and paid with worthless colored paper. During corvid 19  the world Bank's almost all of them increased the money supply for the same basic excuse in every country. Even though debt is referenced back to other currencies they all did the same thing. The end result is not higher prices it is in fact lower value of the national currency. This was very obvious what was going to happen to the value of the dollar to anyone who has read rise and fall of the third Reich. Within the first two months of the pandemic I knew what the outcome as far as money value was going to be and brought hard assets real estate gold and silver. I didn't want any amount of cash on hand as I was sure this was on its way. I personally feel like we are in the equivalent to 1973 when OPEC was formed. We are at the beginning of hyper inflation. In 1973 a guy could buy a basic Chevy work truck for three thousand dollars in Canada by 1983 that same truck with a different front clip but the same four speed same 350 same frame same rearend was 12000 so in ten years the price of a pickup went up four times. Housing here went up five to six times here farmland went up seven times. Gold Price in 1972 was 65 dollars by 1982 it was 440 dollars all I say is hang on the ride is looking like it will be a wild one. 

All the best,
Nonoise