Fed rate increase = lower hifi prices?

@greenngoldcheesehead  I would definitely take the folks at the economic forecasting firm to Vegas with you. Should be able to make you a fortune!

Our business subscribes to an economic forecasting firm.  Growth will slow into 2023 but no recession.  Minor recession in 2026.  Inflation will stay in 4 to 5% range for rest of this decade.

Although forecasting is rarely accurate due to unforeseen variables, this seems like a very reasonable forecast to me.  We’ll see. 

Our business subscribes to an economic forecasting firm. Growth will slow into 2023 but no recession. Minor recession in 2026. Inflation will stay in 4 to 5% range for rest of this decade. Major depression around 2035 - worldwide.

With 4-5% inflation without compensatory growth, that would suggest a potential for significant decline of the stock market total asset valuation in constant dollars. An expected matching rise in interest rates will play havoc on government budgets and/or ability to deliver services.

Did it also predict GDP growth in constant dollars?

Sorry I have to catch up on other posts. This take me longer to absorb vs some others here.

I'm not sure if the rate increases will drastically impact the Cost of Goods Sold.

There have been some specific triggers to increased Cost of Goods Sold over the last 24 months or so:

1. Supply is less than demand in the logistics area resulting in all companies having increased inbound/outbound transportation costs
2. Numerous commodities have been supply constrained - increased demand, reduced capacity or combination of the two.  Prices has increased significantly for metals, computer chips and many other specific items.
3. Many companies have increased their sales prices.  

I recognize there are bad actors; I think pressure to keep pricing constant was removed due to the significant fall and return of demand and the financial liquidity pressures immediately following the 'shut down'.

I think prices will be more influenced by demand than interest rates.

@daveyf, the reason I have used this economist for 15 yrs is because they did make my business a fortune so I don't have to rely on Vegas :)  They don't forecast the stock market either.  And, yes, no one has a crystal ball and they didn't predict covid or Ukraine or any other black swan event that comes our way.

The real gist of this thread is prices are high and maybe or hopefully they will come down.  All I am saying is that the input costs into these products including labor are not forecasted to go down anytime soon.  We may be waiting awhile to see it happen.  So if a reader is holding back on purchasing something, consider that the price could go up 20% over the next 4 yrs so you'll need a 20% reduction just to get to the same "high" price point as today.  Of course 4 yrs from now, todays price will be a "deal" and won't be considered "high".

I told my sales team this week:  The best time for a customer to purchase our industrial equipment at the lowest forseeable cost is today.