Fed rate increase = lower hifi prices?


Will the recent rate hike meant to slow down the economy result in lower hifi prices?  Seems everything shot up during Covid. Will we now see some relief?

128x128bigtex22

@ghasley No, and I thought it was rather absurd and useless so I didn’t even address it. In my business we had some of the best economists in the biz and I ran all manner of econometric models that generated pretty respectable numbers (high R-squared, low autocorrelation/heteroskedasticity, etc.), and I found just trying to forecast the next year to be at best a crapshoot much less 13 years out.

We can't even predict a narrow set of critical commodities to battery manufacturing 6 months out, how one could accurately predict the world economy out a decade seems open to competence questioning.

Please poke as big of holes as you feel is appropriate in anything I say. I won't take it personally. Is that earnings yield not based on growth?  Since you have done the research are you able to share some simple math for discussion?

Look man, I spent many years doing primary research, quantitative analysis, and market strategy on Wall Street, so yeah when you throw some BS generalities out there with no justification that contradicts my experience I’m gonna say so.  Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

Honestly, feelings are not hurt at all. I really do want to see the basis of you analysis so I can understand it better.

Sorry, I meant to say hurting your feelings was not my intent at all.  To answer your question, you can’t just look at growth and inflation and hope to predict where stock prices are going.  We use seven proprietary models that track the economy, the Fed. stock valuations, bonds, technicals, etc.  It’s not until we pull all those factors together that we get a clearer picture of the stock market.  This is why I’m saying just looking at inflation and growth and saying stocks will collapse just isn’t sufficient information to draw that conclusion.  And no, I will not share more details about our models as they’ve been developed over many years.  I will say that when the disparity between the earnings yield and bond yields is this high, betting against stocks is rarely a good idea.  Again, FWIW.