No, Ritteri it is not close enough. the VHS/Betamax analog doesn't work for the most part since with video cassette player/recorders you were limited to physically supporting one format or the other. I am unaware of universal cassette players. Though admittedly I am pretty young and that type of player may have existed at one time. But still I am unware of such a beast.
But I do have one simple angument. With more and more universal players coming to market, how can there be a format war? I believe I first hear this argument from Ric Shultz. The day will come when you will walk into your electronics store and and clerk will show you several digital players. He will show you several that can play all of the digital formats except one (doesn't matter what it is, dvd-a, sacd, svcd, etc) and several that can play ALL of the formats. Both are the same price or close. Even if you are the basic unwashed audiophile consumer, which player are you going to pick? The one that plays everything!
In the scenario is wouldn't matter what disc you buy whether it be SACD, DVD-A, DVD-A, VCD, mp3s, redbook CDs, any 5 inch polycarbonate disc is going to play in that player. Except for portable or car audio players you would be covered. This could not happen in the VHS/Betamax world. the formats were physically incompatible as far as I understood it. And for a most part, I feel this largely invalidates the Betamax argument as far as SACD and DVD-A in concerned.
Or are you arguing that like betamax, DVD-A and SACD are going to be relagated to niche markets (like betamax was and still is)? This is true. But then again so is vinyl. And so is the hobby of high-end audio. So what? You said "one word: Betamax". OK. Please elaborate.