How can you tell when tubes are shot?


I have an ARC REF1 and ARC REF Phono Preamp as well as assorted solid state gear. I leave everything on 24/7 and am wondering if the tubes just quit working (ie: get really noisy) or whether there is a gradual decline in their performance? ARC makes recommendations on who long they should last but I have been running the REF1 steady for over 18 months and haven't noticed anything.
ntscdan
Any recommendations on replacement tubes for the Audio Research PH3 phono preamp? Thanks in advance.
Thanks for all the great tube advice. The reason that I run my stuff all the time is that I actually get to listen to music from the time I get up until I hit the sack. Plus I use the record out on the REF 1 to feed an A/D convertor which feeds a great jazz station from Seattle (KPLU) through out the house. I have ordered replacement tubes from Audio Research because I guess I just feel more comfortable getting them from the folks that built the stuff, plus the little rings are cool. I do use a glove whenever I am handling tubes so as not to leave any marks, kinda like installing halogen bulbs.