This may not be the jesting question you could suppose. I presently live in Milan Township, OH. For those of you who don't recognize that name, it's the birthplace of Thomas Edison. Guess how many 100+ year old Edison cylinders are still played here on the old players? Not to mention 78s on the Victrolas. And then there are the hundreds of pilgrims every month who keep the antique shops running strong buying it all.
I submit that analog recordings scribed on cylinders and disks will long outlast magnetic and optical media be they encoded via analog or digital processes. Well into the 22nd century and likely beyond, IMO. Sound quality is not the primary concern of forecast longevity; the medium itself is simply more physically durable and the recording that survives is the one that will get listened to. Optical technologies are damaged by UV, magnetic by EM, cloud by UV, EM and RF. Those are far more prevalent than mechanical friction or shock with respect to damaging artifacts. Even submersion or mold do not have insurmountable effects on analog cylinder/disk technology. Just ask the Library of Congress.
FWIW, I also strongly suspect that at least some of us participating in these forums now will see the 200th anniversary of the phonographic recording in 2077. Such is the nature of progress, no?
