The nail in the coffin, in my opinion, for HD-DVD is the Playstation 3(which is a great blu ray player). Now that Warner has jumped ship it's only a matter of time. Probabaly a year from now.
It doesn't matter to me though. I have both and the top of the line Toshiba does a much better job of upconverting standard def.
On another front Microsoft made a brilliant move by not building the HD-DVD player into there machine. They are circumventing the whole war by allowing XBOX 360 owners the ability to download hi def movies right to their hard drives.