Is this the END of DAYS for the high end CD player

The following is paraphrased from some email correspondence I had with a close friend of mine:
"...Is the CD format dead? I have just one response: vinyl.
From the moment that (mini)cassettes hit the market, people were predicting the death of vinyl. Yes, vinyl did effectively die as a mainstream medium, but because it has unique sonic qualities; it actually changed and become much more of a niche medium. The death of vinyl was even more complete when CD arrived, or so the magazine articles said in the mid-80s. I think that, over time, CD will also become a niche medium, but it will never truly die because of the universal manufacturing and distribution technologies that underlie CDs (anyone with a computer can create and replicate perfect CD audio copies--something cassette couldn't achieve due to sound degradation), and because they're really, really cheap to make. There's more bang-for-the-buck there than in any other format right now, and it'll probably be that way for years to come (if not decades).
Even if CD were to fall as the medium-of-choice in the US and other advanced economies, it would still be a medium-of-choice in developing economies for years, even decades. It's only been within the last 5-10 years that CDs have even become available in most African markets, and cassettes are still the medium-of-choice in many emerging Central and East Asian markets.
I have no illusions that eventually the American and European markets will hit a tipping point and arrive at a medium-less mass market for musical and video product consumption. But even at that point, the CD will be far from dead, because it's so inexpensive and convenient.
The other thing that will have to evolve is the issue of transactions and payment as relates to licenses. Specifically, look at the cumbersome issues that Google and Apple are dealing with in order to launch their so-called cloud media services; lawsuits are lining up from labels, artists, and individuals regarding the mechanisms and regulations for how they get their share of the licensing pie. CDs, cassettes, and LPs are physical products so tracking--and paying for--each licensed copy is easy and is also the foundation of a huge financial market. Digital copies, and how you ascribe licensing rights for selling, duplicating/copying, and playback are murky law right now. Commercial law around these issues is still rooted in the media of the 1990s, and hasn't really even caught up with the whole Napster-era issues, much less HD downloading. You know how much fun it is trying to move music around different devices in iTunes, even when you own the original CD; no media delivery company (i.e. cloud service) has any substantial caselaw built up around how to define "license" when existing caselaw still largely ties license to a physical piece of media (one CD, one license, one person). By the strictest definition of existing law, you and I are breaking copyright law every time we upload a CD into iTunes, because by the technical definitions of the law, we're creating a new and essentially perfect copy without paying an additional license to the companies and artists who own the original work of art. No one prosecutes that level of the law anymore, but it was an issue no less than 30 years ago when the major labels sued Sony for creating blank/recordable cassettes, the logic being that copying from vinyl to cassette was illegal copying and that the record companies were owed for each tape copy of a vinyl record. It wasn't until the late 1980s that the court decisions established interpretations of licensing law regarding personal use of a particular licensed CD/LP/cassette. However, those licensing concepts are *still* the underpinning of today's media laws. CDs will become niche media, but I've not seen an argument yet that convinces it's a dying format..."
Heath and I have been close friends for 20 years. He has written extensively as a freelance talent for magazines like NME and others.

Bit perfect downloads are the future and the future is here. Everyone seems to make the assumption that the decline curve of the cd will mirror that of the LP and settle at some predetermined flat line. I don't believe that assumption will play out and further I believe that the cd is essentially a cassete tape:a medium conducive to sharing or taking on the go for the car.....for now. So many new cars now have iPod/iPad adapters and/or USB inputs for thumb drives etc.

If you believe that the physical player will fade away gracefully you need only to look at the high Rez material becoming widely available....you can even download DSD!!!!

The key issue in my opinion is that the artist will actually be able to bypass the corporate music moguls....and take it straight to the people. All they need to do is male a good recording, build a good website and sell their own music direct to the consumer. Instead of making $1-1.50 per unit they will be able to make 10 times more money and still deliver the music to the people for less than we were paying at a brick and mortar store. No one will ever be out of stock and hard to find recordings will no longer be so. Think of all of the terrific musicians who will finally be able to make a fair living! Touring will also return as that will be a material differentiator and marketing tool for the future. I'll bet really good recording studios will actually begin to sprout up as musicians will no longer require major labels to get their product to market. Check out Blue Coast Records.....I had never heard of them and discovered they offer some pretty cool recordings and sell High Rez downloads all the up to DSD quality. Prices will fall just like always but if the world goes high Rez download can you imagine the bandwidth requirements? Wow!

I can buy cd's 0n Amazon for $2.99 up to $7.99 and play them on my Wadia GNSC S7i and also use it's USB and digital inputs to listen to hi-rez. I have the best of both worlds.

Funny, I thought cd's were already dead

CD is the VHS that is now replaced by DVD(putting digital vs. analog aside). If you want to compare, barely anybody will buy the VHS anymore so it is what it is just taking up space with the other very simple and higher quality solutions available today.

We could argue the legal issues are what they are all day and night, but does that mean the 1000 free vinyls I got in mint condition at one point was illegal too? Or just paying a Dollar for a Vinyl is illegal as well?

Copies are everywhere period, but the bottom line only reason CD is "Dead" so to speak or at the end of its days is not my opinion or anyone else, its simply that we can all wake up tomorrow and have easy replacement formats that work as or more efficiently in the ultimate scheme of things, just like flat panel TV's vs. the old ones, nobody is collecting the old ones are they? Of course not when cost and technology plus convenience overtake something like this.

Comparing any of this to vinyl is silly. Its not in the same league as its more a nostalgia play and sound quality issue, Cassette would have been vinyls replacement, but it just is not better, nor while sitting at the house does it matter when it takes an extra 30 seconds to flip a vinyl vs. CD or Auto tape deck reverse play. Plus Vinyl is like a classic car, or a Harley. CD is a cheap mid 80's honda nobody really cares about or will go out of their way to find.

So truth is it comes down to music and where you want it?

In the car, forget CD all together, I don't know one person carrying them around anymore, you have 1000 albums at a finger touch with a Dock in the car now and a full digital backup at home. And back in the day have 100 cd's laying on the seat melting was not that fun anyway!

I still have CD's, but its one in 20 times I might put a CD on because I can hear it in the car anytime. And mostly all my digital at home consists of Hi def Bluray concerts etc...

Beyond that I have no use for the CD plastic itself, accept I will buy it if its cheap enough to convert over to the Ipod or server anyway if its something I don't have or can't have on Vinyl.

Technically its dead, Fundamentally it just does not know it yet.