The CD is Dead Long Live The CD?

If I sell you a cd,there is an intermediate step for a wholesaler,who must make a profit. Because I know that two persons will record your copy,the final price will reflect that.

In addition to the two copies you give away,I have to consider piracy,and the wholesaler has to determine how many to order,and we(I and the wholesaler) must deal with defects and returns of unsold software.

If I put my cataloge in cyber space,you can get a Sony Nero dual layer dvd-cd burner,and download it,either in a good format like redbook 44.1(assuming you have a good dac),or MP-3,if you don't mind the dynamic compression.

Because I don't have to charge you the price of wholesaling,copying the master,defects,and returns,I can charge you a price that doesn't make piracy that much cheaper---so there is less incentive to commit piracy.

I'm not sure the cd is dead; all the hardware out here have drives that fit the standard size disks,with all the dvd and cd combination available,plus the USB flash drive MP-3 possibilites,so my guess is that cd will live for those of us who prefer good software,as long as computers have the disk size drives.

Yes,more and more music will be downloaded from cyber cataloges,and more of it will go into MP-3 players,but we can still copy it in 44.1 to disks if we choose.

When optical drives become affordable,with storage in three dimesions,something the size of a baseball will be able to copy the Library of Congress,but that will require the disimination of hardware to play it.

Pragmatist,

You may know technology, but you know nothing about capitalism:

Because I don't have to charge you the price of wholesaling,copying the master,defects,and returns,I can charge you a price that doesn't make piracy that much cheaper---so there is less incentive to commit piracy.

Yeah right! Since when have manufacturers of anything passed cost savings on to the consumer -- especially when they have a monopoly!!

"One can only hope..."?

"Vinyl still seems to be going strong" That statement hasn't been true for a quarter century.
There may be a niche market but "strong" is definitely not the correct descriptor.

I think we might want to project into the future on this.

The kids that are 15 today will have lived with ''downloads'' for 10 years when they get to be 25 in 2016. It is not that far away.

How many of them will have become ''audiophiles'' to the point where they will spend for a 5 inch plastic disk only to be transferred to a pea-sized I-Pod in their ear canal?

The cd will probably keep improving as the LP records have also been improving.

But it is irrelevant. Cd's and LP's will be in niche markets dedicated to relatively few audiophiles who will kid themselves that music is more important than audio-lust and audio jewellery, the only reason left to fuel purchases of expensive cd players and turntables and insanely priced cables and the like. Music SHOULD be more important than the gear of course, but I feel that this is not what high-end audio is about. And there is nothing wrong with that. There can be immense pleasure in the pride of owning electro-mechanical works of art (okay let's call this your average kilobuck amplifier or cd player). Same goes for photography, boating, or antiques.

The rest of the world will be enjoying good sound quality, if maybe not the absolute best, but certainly good enough, with infinitely more convenience, on equipment that will cost an infinite fraction of what is being spent today.

Given the choice between listening to music and artists that I do not enjoy on cd's or LP's that produce spectacular sounds on a megabuck system, and the choice of listening to music that moves me on an I-Pod, I'll take the I-Pod any day. And this is where, by natural choice and just the sheer amount of music out there and the ease with which it can be readily enjoyed anywhere, most are heading, I feel.

There will still be, for some time to come, the warm glow of tubes, a record or CD of your favorite music that you can actually hold in your hands, for us to enjoy with a glass of beer or wine or whatever. But only if we have time to enjoy it.

But we will be like audio-dinosaurus on an exressway, so you WILL grab that I-Pod most of the time.