Former ambassador McFall knows Putin as well as anyone out there. What he has to say is scary. Putin listens to no one. His cabinet is all for show. He lives in his dacha outside of Moscow and rarely comes into the city. He doesn't read newspapers or keeps up on world news. He's surrounded by military yes men and oligarchs.
He made a major blunder misreading the tea leaves and sent in a show of force without proper planning and looks like a fool to military experts. Lots of Russian kids were told this was an exercise. They've left their tanks full of gas for Ukrainians to drive away. There's two videos of a Ukrainian solder just climbing in one and driving away to use later. Another shows a young girl in a troop carrier giving instructions on how to start it and drives away in it. Farmers are towing them away for future use.
That 40 mile long convoy is barely moving. While listening into the coms, we realized there's no digital signature. They're using common radios and the Ukrainians are listening in, knowing where they're going. Russian commanders have taken to keeping a great distance from their troops as a result. Even the Spetsnaz have been hindered by it. They're stealing Ukrainian radios whenever they can.
Putin will react like the madman he is. I think war is unavoidable as Putin wants all of it's former nation states back. He's living in the 19th century. With the Ides of March upon us, I pray he'll have his Julius Caesar moment and we can fix this.
All the best,
Nonoise