Interesting idea, and to some degree probably correct. It's odd that this hasn't been talked about more, but have you ever noticed that currently discussions of music downloads center around MP3 and lossy compression schemes, while hardware (slowly) pushes towards a higher resolution format (DVD-A, SACD). There are opposing views, particularly from those that represent the musicians vs those that distribute music, on this topic. I personally feel that music distribution via the internet (or satelite--which is already true to some degree) will occur. It's a simple business model that someday can literally give you just about all music at virtually anytime. I can invision putting in a list of things you want to store on your hard disc and the next morning it's all there. In the background it can continue to bring in new titles and recommend new music. It gives a very good recurring revenue stream to whomever is distributing. What are the problems with this model? First capital investment, but that can easily be overcome by the super giants in entertainment (Sony, Phillips, Warner etc.) The real problem I foresee is the legalities involved in this type of distribution. Can you imagine the contracts for this? I know there are a number of attorneys here on A-gon and they can probably respond to this much better, but just consider the problems of copy protection on DVD-A and SACD and that really wasn't such a wild departure from CD. Bottom line is, I think your CD's will be useful for quite some time now. Hopefully they won't for my grandchildren.
What will become of my beloved CDs?
I have nearly 2000 CDs (DVDA, SACD, etc) and am very fond of them, or at least the music that is on them. However, it seems that music distribution is going to someday soon be totally on-line through downloads (True? When?). So, when most all of the music on my CDs is available in higher-quality on-line downloads (with artwork, I'm sure), what will become of my CDs? Will they be the shiny-silver equivalent to 8-Track tapes? Or, will they become a novelty and collectable? Should I seel them ASAP?? Any economists here???
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You asked for an economist, so here goes ... First, there are no guarantees that high quality music will be available anytime soon via the internet. Yes, it will likely be there some day -- at a price. I would guess (hey, that's what economists do you know) that you will be able to pick and choose your favorite songs to download for a price. Of course, formats will need to be determined and playback equipment will need to be designed -- right now, the DVD and CD recorders on the PC are the most likely candidates since they are exist today. All of this may be moot (see Rives comments above) if the legalities and copy protections can't be worked out. Sometime in the next five to ten years, I would guess that a direct method of recording, editing (tweak the compression, bass ...) and playback will be available for download for something beyond MPx. But, will quality be a top priority? Plus, from what I've heard here on Audiogon, the attainment of high quality takes time (CD's sound much better when they are copied at normal speed -- the bits are all there, but the timing is off when copying is accelerated). So, for quality, you'll have to pay for the music (gotta pay the piper ;-)) and you'll have to spend a lot of time properly downloading it. Since time is money and money is money, the overall expense will go up! Any interference on the phone/cable lines may also add noise; that will not bother most folks, but we are not most folks. In a nutshell, I'm keeping all my recordings. If for no other reason, I won't have to spend the time rerecording them later. Plus, it will be a long time before the quality we seek is available. Will that change by the end of the decade? Probably. But what doesn't? They still make turnables so they will make CD/SACD players for some time since the stock of recordings is so large. Then, we'll talk about the golden age of digital recordings when the download jitter didn't make the music sound so cold. Will the recordings be worth more in the future? Some will (recognized high quality and rare). But only so long as there are those who care and demand the old recordings -- that won't last long, maybe another 10-25 years depending on the quality level of the subsitute products (that may be long enough since "in the long run, we are all dead"). The value of your collection is as high as the enjoyment you get from it. Something else will come along that's better (hey, maybe vinyl will see a resurgence) -- that shouldn't diminish your enjoyment overall or today. That is my prediction and is worth every penny you paid for it! |
You can keep them and listen to them in the future, on a "vintage" CD player. Just like we vinyl-types do with our records and "vintage" turntables. Of course, you will have to suffer the slings and arrows of some young tech-heads who will tell you that the new MP3's are "far superior" to that old CD "junk". Just like we vinyl-types have to suffer when people tell us that those CD's are better than our old records. |
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Viridian! Dude! I was so thrilled to learn that I'm not the only one with a High End 8-track system. I replaced all the capacitors with Zen and Crescendo caps from North Creek and rewired with Litz. Roy Orbison has never been ths same. It was as if a veil had been lifted; the sound was simply more real, more present, more available. The PRaT was so immense it literally knocked me off my feet--a veritable prat fall! Now here's the kicker. The model I modified was a Craig "Fireball Roberts Special" that I rescued from a 1968 Ford F-150 pickup. One corner of the case was cracked. I applied a couple of bandaids to hold it together. To my total amazement, not only was the case secured but the sound was enormously improved, as well. Much more air, while the bottom end was tightened and a lot more musical. But wait....I found that different bandaids gave dramatically different results. I'm currently using Flintstone Wee Ones from Curad that I have modified by freezing them in CO2 (used a fire extinguisher). The difference is just incredible and they aren't even broken in yet. Hats off from one 8-tracker to another! will |
I'm not so sure about the hard disc thing. A DVD holds between 4 and 20 Gigabytes of information ... so if your collection was all in high resolution, than you might have 8,000 Gbytes, a substantial hard disk. Now as technology marches forward there might be such a device but then there is the issue of back-up. I for one will want some form of back-up so that when the hard-drive takes a dump I won't be downloading for ... well lets see with a 1 megabit per second data connection. Um 8 Tbytes would take 64 million seconds, only a little over 2 years. But maybe our high speed access will be better or maybe we won't want high resolution multi-channel audio. Lots of unknowns but I think your collection won't be obsolete for a while (I hope so for my sake as well). And you know opnions are just like something else ... everyone has one ... for what it's worth. JW |
Hold on to those CDs man. Another twenty years or so and they will be all the rage. People will collect them and marvel at the sound quality such an old technology can bring. They will marvel at the life-like quality of the recordings. They will go to yard sales, garage sales, pawn shops, specialty shops and will have their brains implanted with tiny chips as a replacement for those E-bay auctions, but without the computer and net connection, and will be able to buy them, sight unseen, from clear around the globe. Hold on to that dream... |
An article from NY Times regarding the current state of on-line classical music: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/11/arts/music/11KOZI.html |
In the future, you won't own recordings at all. You'll subscribe to a service that allows you to download any music you want, at any resolution you want, any time you want. As for your CDs, there will always be players around, but don't expect much of a market for vintage CDs the way there is (or was, since the market is changing) for vintage vinyl. There is nothing about an old CD that will make it more desirable than a download. (Excepting, of course, those inevitable rarities that aren't available for download.) As for that hard drive, you can plug a 20-gig iPod into your car stereo already. However much disk space you need, you will have some day. |
roberjerman, There are a few of us that have not embraced streaming, but the reality is that we are dinosauri. Streaming is gaining traction big time. Reading above posts from 16 years ago, I really felt like Marty from Back to the future movie. It just happened that I stopped by a local library basement today and browsed through the CDs they are selling. $1 a piece, all donated. I would guess there was a few hundred of them, maybe 600-700, ranging from 1970s German pop star, to traditional Chinese music, to multiple versions of Beethoven’s piano works, and anything in between. Someone left them there and that is, with actually nice outcome so far, a big part of the answer to the original post. Someone had no use for CDs anymore. Not so long ago, I would browse boxes with records there. They are no more. Probably whatever could be sold was sold and remainder ended up in the landfill. They do not take them in the library anymore. Maybe, 16 years from now, there will be no library to dump your CD collection at, either. |
When it comes to digging out CDs someone did not want, two or three years ago I came across an unopened CD in that same library basement. I bought it for $1 and liked it a lot. I went on amazon to see if others had similar response. The first thing I noticed was the price. $200. It has decreased since then and is only $91 now although used and only "good" and "very good" condition. Having said that, I would not sell it for $200 despite having it on hard drives and who knows where else. I like having it, as irrational as that may be. |
Been buying a lot of used cd's lately because there are so many out there & they are so cheap. I'm very fussy about the titles but have found some great stuff & I enjoy it.
I also believe DAC technology will keep improving making these even more enjoyable in the future.
This is reminiscent of what I did with vinyl in the early 90's. Still buy vinyl, just less than I did a few years ago. |
Technology is a funny thing. Back in 80 something I bought a very nice TT rig at the dawn of the CD era......practically over night record stores dried up and many of the larger labels stopped making them altogether. It got very difficult to find new vinyl....and I was SERIOUSLY P'ssd. Keep in mind, this was pre-internet, so online shopping hadn't been invented yet. Today I see the same thing happening with streaming/downloading music. Companies have a financial interest in pushing the newest technology that they have invested in........often at the expense of those who choose not to board the train. Take heart, CD's are NOT going away any year soon, although, like vinyl, new releases will probably become harder to find........One of the advantages of CD vs vinyl is that unless abused, they really should play as well in 20 years as they do today, so buying used is unlikely to be a major problem. What I CAN see becoming an issue is playback hardware and it's already starting. I think that soon you will have two choices if you still want to spin discs.............low budget, low performance or more money than you might want to part with for a good machine. I expect most of the in-between machines to go away. Myself, I just purchased a new, high end machine, at least as high end as I can reasonably afford. I expect it and I to grow old together, with or without downloading anything. Lots of nice, used CDP's available now because many people are jumping ship to the latest and greatest. ..........If you have a tight budget, pick up a good quality used machine........or even two if you really have a ton of discs that you still want to be able to play. Put the second one in a box in the basement until the first one dies. You'll be set for years. As for sound quality, I think it's already about as good as it can reasonably get. Red book CD, which I mostly listen to, can sound extremely good.....on a good system, which I have.....Many of the blogs and reviewers that I've read don't seem to "hear" much or any advantage to HQ, MQA, DSD, upsampling, etc.....vs the lowly red book on a good system.............At some point more bits are simply more bits..........I do have SACD and on some discs it does sound a little better than red book, but many of my better red book discs sound close enough that I don't have much of a preference. To a large degree, it's system dependent. If you have an amazing set up, you may hear more of a difference.....I don't. The latest and greatest, often isn't...........people still routinely compare even the best digital gear to the poor old , hissy, poppy, 33 1/3 rpm record......Quite a compliment when you consider how far technology has come in 30 years...........Technology will always move forward because it CAN, but newer isn't necessarily better, just different. |
CDPs aren't going anywhere, soon. Check out this thread from A'gon: https://forum.audiogon.com/discussions/if-you-still-spin-cd-s-their-is-a-reference-level-transport-for-reasona Right now, for the price of a decent server (which will be obsoleted in about 6 months) you can get a CDP and DAC that can rival some of the best PC gear out there. Sure, it's kind of old fashioned but who cares? All the best, Nonoise |
uberwaltz there ya go, pointing out the obvious......and I agree. Funny really that vinyl is STILL the standard to which all others are measured............All most people under 40 care about is portability. Few have ever been exposed to a really good system, playing good music..........They have no idea and don't care.........You don't miss what you don't know about. Even funnier is that many of them will be downloading the newer hi-rez formats, listening to them on $50 ear buds, or budget desk top speakers and raving about how good it sounds............Funny and sad at the same time.............I must be getting old............OK, that's a given :) |
I agree with jafant. CD players will be around for a long time. Maybe like turntables these days. Irrelevant in bigger picture, but with enough of die-hard support to make them profitable in those low numbers. Something like 78s. Some turntables can still play them, but it is a very small group of people who may actually use it. And, when nobody is watching, I ask myself why would they use it anyway. |
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@glupson why 78s? Because they’re still being pressed and issued 🤪 https://kittydaisyandlewis.officialstore.co.uk/Shop/PhysicalDetails?pid=KDL_PH_4 |
@elizabeth - Your scenario reminds me of the SETI organization and their search for extra terrestrial radio signals. If a civilization is a million years ahead of you, MAYBE they use a communication protocol you don’t understand (compare analog radio to digital - ever dial a fax machine by mistake? Does the sound it makes make any sense?). |
folkfreak, Wow, I stand corrected big time. I had no idea anyone would make 78s these days. It may be a niche market, but it seems that it is a market. The secret is that I actually always want a turntable with 78 although I own exactly zero records like that. At the same time, I have a probably very dumb question. Tell me that they are not made of shellac but something more durable. |
Issuing 78s is a bit of a gimmick really -- they're pressed on vinyl not shellac and while there might theoretically be an advantage to the faster speed (a la 45rpm issues) most motors running at 78rpm are noisy as heck so that kind of defeats the purpose! They're fun nevertheless if you have 78 in your player, and you don't need a dedicated stylus -- Jack White is a big proponent https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/6538682/jack-white-third-man-records-first-elvis-presley-rec... Of course mono is a much bigger and realer thing -- the market for mono only carts and expensive reissues of rare mono discs -- like this which is one of my faves https://www.discogs.com/Johanna-Martzy-Radio-Recordings/release/9966202 |
Oh and to the OPs question -- keep your CDs, do not dump them, in fact buy more. I've never heard an streaming or downloaded file that sounded better than the original CD played on my DCS stack, plus by buying direct from the artist (which you always should if possible) you are putting $ as directly in their pocket as you can |
dweller @elizabeth - Your scenario reminds me of the SETI organization and their search for extra terrestrial radio signals. If a civilization is a million years ahead of you, MAYBE they use a communication protocol you don’t understand (compare analog radio to digital - ever dial a fax machine by mistake? Does the sound it makes make any sense?). >>>>If a technically advanced civilization attempted to communicate with a much less advanced civilization it would understand that it must find a common means of communication. They would almost certainly assume that anyone listening for such signals would comprehend digital. Or they could use prime numbers or Finonocci numbers to get our attention. They could send ANY kind of signal as long as it’s not naturally occurring if they were simply trying to communicate that they exist. We could figure out where the signal was coming from with ease, just like they did in the movie Contact. |
An article in HI-Fi News recently (June issue) discussed an event introducing the new Magico A3 speakers, and Alon Wolf attended the festivities. He played all sorts of stuff from a computer, and all of it was at the "Red Book" standard...Wolf said, "We are not using any hi-res material. We see no need. You can overdo things, you know." The author, Barry Fox, feels that new gear "unlocks" the otherwise missed potential of great Red Book recordings, and I agree. I own plenty of CDs and also enjoy vinyl, and am amazed at how insanely good many CDs sound these days...a good DAC, a clean, coherent system, and you’re set for many years of excellent sounding music. |
Now, the first question remaining would be if CD-resolution downloads/streams can actually sound like those CDs. Assuming that new gear does unlock whatever potential CDs have. If downloads/streams equal it, it becomes matter of, more or less, only convenience and then we are back to the original question. What will become of CDs? |
elizabeth, Your argument about not being able to decode CDs in the future is the same one I use to refuse to go digital in photography - - but to stick to film and photographs printed on archival paper. \ Matthew Brady's photographs of the Civil War are still with us, my latest iPhone photo already has been deleted. |
Simply nonsense all around...Although actual film is certainly a quaint art form, if you bother to print digital photos they can stick around like any printed film can, and if you utilize safe and redundant storage you can save digital photos instead of losing them to fire, rain, or any of the other losses incurred by most film over the years...research movie film restoration efforts. Elizabeth imagines some less sophisticated future world that can't get CDs to work...science fiction at best and utterly irrelevant to today's world. Downloads and streams allow the rental of music or buying for digital storage, but an actual physical CD can't be deleted, and acts as a permanent physical reference...I can access any of my CDs quickly by sticking one in my CD player. |
wolf_garcia, Yes, digital photos can be printed on archival paper; however, the processes to produce film and digital are different. By choice of film, developers, timing, and printing techniques, a film photo can be different from the same image produced via a computer and Lightroom, then scanned. There's a clear sense of personal satisfaction in the end results with film developing and printing. I have Kodachromes dating back to 1939, and film negatives dating to 1941 - - and my Grandson has my old developing and printing stuff. But, back to CDs: My somewhat extensive collection is 100% RedBook classical, and they spin quite nicely on a Bryston BCD-3. My grandchildren will inherit my CD collection and my 2 channel B ruston and Thiel system; meanwhile, I can contemplate the differences among several Verdi Requiem CD issue - - Reiner, Giulini and Barenboim. |
I will keep all my CD's...... I wish I had kept all my 1200+ records I sold in 1986. CD's were becoming the 'big' thing. I got pennies on the dollar for them as folks had moved up to the new technology. My collection was pretty much all mint, many of them were 'promos'. They would be worth a butt load now! Hang on to those CD's... |
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"Will they be the shiny-silver equivalent to 8-Track tapes? " Yes. 8-track tapes are worthless. I tried to sell mine not long ago and would up giving them to charity. "Or, will they become a novelty and collectable?" No. See above. They're just a space-wasting different medium for ones and zeros. Nothing to get nostalgic about. |