Did vinyl sales just hit the proverbial brick wall?


Interesting read here about the state of vinyl. Personally, I had no idea what the percentage of vinyl sales was “merchandise” never to be opened or played.

 

https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/did-the-music-business-just-kill?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

128x128wturkey

We oldtimers who love records can still purchase them on Ebay and from used record stores. By the time the interest and availability of vinyl records peters out, so will most of us anyway, so why worry about it. Instead enjoy what records we already have at home or can still purchase used.

I don’t, or won’t, stream music and probably never will. But I do stream Paramount Plus on television to catch or rewatch all the many Star Trek programs. I’ve seen most all of them, and have yet to see a single vinyl record on any episode. So the handwriting is on the wall.

My current plan is to outlive my peers and scarf up their record collections as they become available. It’s only out of politeness I’ve not contacted those of you who say you’re getting rid of your vinyl, while switching to streaming.. And the vast majority of kids I’ve spoken to haven’t a clue about good audio equipment, much less vinyl records, so what’s the difference if records disappear after we’re gone?

Mike

@grislybutter 

You're right Grisly.  A lot of millennials and younger are buying vinyl and labels are cutting records of material they like.  In fact some of them are buying more vinyl than I buy as I have most of what I want and I'm not much interested in the noise and bling that passes for popular music these days.  As for classical, how many versions of Beethoven's Fifth do you need?  I have about 7.

It is difficult to prove a negative.  Some here are saying young people don't buy vinyl.  Where is their evidence?

I’ve never seen Steve Earl but I saw Canned Heat in the early 1970’s. Anyway, the article is like an editorial page, what I tend to believe is true based on my limited scope or understanding. Every time I check the website for The Electric Recording Company, each one of the $800.00 editions have sold out and that’s because of the work and money that goes into them. MOFI and AnalogueProductions are committed to remastering and rereleasing titles with audiophile quality at realistic prices. There’s Analogphonic, Pure Pleasure, Speakers Corner, Universal, Rhino, etc.. who are doing the same. The reason why technology hasn’t changed radically is because the process that’s worked extremely well over the past twenty plus years still works extremely well today. I will agree however that it’s hard to make money in the music industry but it’s always had it’s troubles and frustrations, just of a different nature.

Rihanna put on a great show at the SB! Who would you rather see, 80 year old Bob Dylan singing Blowing in the Wind? I am a big Dylan fan and I still wouldn’t want to see that. It’s 2023! Not the 60’s or 70’s.

I would really like to see the halftime show, all the other hoopla and the stupid commercials done away with, and just have an NFL Championship game played like any other regular season game.  But I know that’s never going to happen, so I just start watching about an hour late and fast forward through all the junk..

@mijostyn 

I do not understand what you just wrote. It made no sense to me. I did not separate anyone. I deal with statistics every day. I know what representation means.

A used record store is a perfect representation of its buyers since THEY ARE the buyers. It has nothing to do with who is outside. My point was about the age of the people. Young people buy records. Period.  All my kids, Gen Zs listen to vinyl. 

Your second point made even less sense. I won't find you in used record stores? How is that relevant to my point? Is it below you because you only buy new records? So you are representative of rich old men? Does it cause young people not to buy records? NO it does not. There is 0 correlation between what you do and Millennials and Gen Zs do. (They buy used records because of how much money they have, unlike you who only buys new records) I understand I won't be able to find a representative sample in a USED record store because you won't be there and you need to be counted but that is exactly my point: the people who ARE there.

Was your point to just brag? I am not ashamed to go to used record stores, all I can afford is 5-10 dollars for a record. You have been privileged and wealthy to only buy new records, good for you. But that proves nothing about the demographics that are interested in vinyl.

 

 

 

I last saw Dylan live in 2001, and he was fantastic, far better than he been when I saw him 10 years earlier. But then he was playing better music, and had a far, far better band. Of course, that was 22 years ago now. But he still has great material, and a great band. Um, yeah, I’d rather see him at 80 than Rihanna, whatever her age. But that’s just me.

I consider my fortunate in getting to see and hear Big Joe Turner in the mid-80’s---when he was in his mid-70’s, shortly before his death. By far the greatest male singer I’ve ever heard live. And backing him were The Blasters, with the great Lee Allen blowing tenor sax. Awesome!

@grislybutter , my kids are millennials and grew up listening to everything and the only one interested in a turntable is my son in law. You see hardly any interest in Zoomers. A record store will give you a false impression because you have isolated record buyers from the rest of the population who are obviously not represented in the record store. You'll never find me in a used record store. I have records dating from the late 50's onwards that I purchased new. I have all the old records I need.

@yoyoyaya , sales may be growing for the time being but this is only a snapshot. You have to watch the trend over time. Right now they are growing because old guys like me need something to spend their money on and there is a modest interest in young adults. Both populations will decline over time and take the record sales with them. Zoomers are quite happy locked in a closet with their telephone and computer.

The issue may be that the LP is being sold as a premium product that is worth a high price. If the market has softened I would think the manufacturers have a lot of room to cut the price, pocketing their profits from the flush times and picking up what lesser profits remaining to be had. If, as I believe, the vinyl market is primarily driven by some listeners' distaste for the digital sound, I think there would always be a hard core to support it. 

So...vinyl and cassette sales both grew but the market for physical media overall is shrinking.The vinyl revival has always been niche in the context of overall music consumption. If the figures quoted are accurate, it hasn't hit a brick wall. Just the growth of uptake has slowed.

That's hardly a surprise. It's a very expensive way to reproduce what are now mainly digital files originally. And now that those files are available streamed in their original format - which is increasingly high resolution digital - the usp of vintyl decreases.

As a final negative, vinyl is environmentally unfriendly and the recent state of oil prices will have done nothing to improve pricing of vinyl releases.

Despite all that, sales are still growing.

 

 

 

Rihanna put on a great show at the SB! Who would you rather see, 80 year old Bob Dylan singing Blowing in the Wind? I am a big Dylan fan and I still wouldn't want to see that. It's 2023! Not the 60's or 70's. 

Anyway, I have two nieces under 30 that are both into records, I was in a record store last week and saw a 20 year old, they are far and few between, but they exist. As for records peaking, I would say they are leveling off, the classics will always be worth something. Some of the new stuff will become classics (Taylor Swift for one) and others will be in the cut-out bin.

Thanks grisly, check it out, I am always adding new ones so keep checking. Thanks

grahamiba on ebay

Who cares, it's not the medium, it's the music. Just watching Rihanna at SB half time. Horrendous, no matter the medium.

I just turned 70 and I am listing all my records on eBay. My collection is from 1969 - 2016 or so, rock, smooth jazz & jazz. I have about 500 albums and I averaging $20.00 per record.

@mijostyn @bigtwin I go to a used record store every week and I never see anyone there over 40. It’s full of Millennials.

Time will tell. But even if LP's return to a niche product level (even more so than some think they already are), so what? As long as they are available, those who want them will be able to get them. And there will ALWAYS be millions of used LP's, many containing music never made available on CD. As a side note: there are also plenty of albums which have NEVER been available on LP, CD only. Rodney Crowell's masterpiece The Houston Kid and he and Vince Gill's wonderful album The Notorious Cherry Bombs being two examples.

I agree with @bdp24 that the article is poorly researched and draws dubious conclusions.

 

However, the vinyl resurgence will peak and start heading down soon. Yes, the boomers passing away will make a big difference. But it is also about technological progress in digital. CDs or even stored files were not remotely competitive on a sound quality / cost effective basis. That has been rapidly changing over the last five years.
 

Right now, in general, analog still wins in the budget and ultra high end categories. But in the, say, the $50K - $200K category, it is very competitive SQ-wise… and if you do only one and put your money on streaming, then the sound quality is better and the cost of music goes to almost zero, and you have access to millions of albums. That is such a value proposition that folks new to the high end would be crazy to ignor. 
 

So the writing is on the wall. It’s over… except for nostalgia buffs… the guys that do  Ham radio. There are still a few around… but not many.

How much can it cost to break out the old equipment and press a new copy of a record a company already has the rights to and masters for? I’d love to buy some new reissues on vinyl, but the prices are arbitrarily ridiculous. Even used CD prices seem to be rising of late. I'm surprised someone in China hasn't figured this out and taken over the market. With their cheap labor, and pvc vinyl and cardboard costing zilch, they could probably manufacture and sell old records reissues for considerably less than a dollar. including shiipping. 

Mike

@edcyn, at the risk of further inflaming the ire of fsonicsmith1 and wturkey, I have good news for you: Music Millennium has a copy of The Mountain (the title of the utter disaster that is the Steve Earle/Del McCoury Band album). It's a used copy, available for $5.00. I had them put it on hold (under my last name, message me for it). The clerk told me you can call and order it over the phone, their number being (503)231-8926.

“I don’t know why this thread went off the rails so early but since it did,”

 

It appears to be the nature of the Audiogon beast nowadays. One asks a question regarding cd players and gets 50 replies regarding streamers.…. Good times. 

I don’t know why this thread went off the rails so early but since it did, I am a Steve Earle fan and yet I find The Mountain unlistenable. I don’t claim to be a blue grass cognoscenti but I do appreciate good blue grass and The Mountain is not good. For those who will say "that's just your opinion, man", ask twenty blue grass fans who travel to see blue grass shows and I bet not one will say The Mountain is more than an utter failure. 

@edcyn: Yeah, The Mountain LP is getting hard to find. The album was released on both CD and LP in 1999 on E-Squared Records (the label started by Earle and music businessman Jack Emerson)---I have both, and reissued on CD and LP in 2017 on Warner Brothers Records.

Music Millennium shows a copy of the WB CD in stock, but their website data and in-store stock often differ. I’ll give them a call after they open today (Sunday), and have them check the bin. I’ll let you know, and if you’re in luck you can order it online.

The show was definitely at The House Of Blues on Sunset, I remember it very well. Steve and all the Del McCoury Band members stood in a semi-circle around the single mic; when Steve was singing the verses he would move in closer to the mic; when the band sang harmonies (they are excellent harmonizers) he would move back in line with them. When an instrumentalist took a solo that player would move closer to the mic, returning to the line at it’s conclusion. Bluegrass players start young; by the time they are 12 years old they are playing at professional level. Marty Stuart joined Lester Flatt’s band when he was 14 tears old! That’s about the age when a lot of Rockers pick up a guitar for the first time, and aren't fully developed players for another ten years after that, if ever.

@mijostyn I believe you are spot on with the reference to the Boomer generation.  Being part of that group myself, I am well aware to the huge impact this demographic has had on a number of industries.  Anyone remember the Racket Ball craze?  The tremendous wealth of the Boomers and desire to enjoy everything from our youth (how else does a 68 Camaro RS demand $150K), I agree the interest in LPs will die with us.  It's just one of many items my children and grand kids have zero interest in.  But while I'm still here I'm going to enjoy LPs as much as I can.  

The resurgence was always going to end as the baby boomers fade out into history. Young people for the most part are only interested in music if they can play it on their telephone. They may progress to a streaming system as they get older, but I have a very hard time seeing them go for vinyl. There is absolutely no real benefit and a lot of expense and fiddling. 

The majors certainly are not interested. The few records they produce have been of low quality meaning they are not interested in investing in new equipment or facilities. 

I mainly buy Vinyl today, as a 'Merch' direct from a New Performer trying to become established. It is the only method I see to be used, to assist with them getting a worthwhile remuneration from their work.

In many cases the Tracks can be acquired by much more affordable means, but I don't see any great remunerative value in this route of purchasing for the performers.

If vinyl were more affordable I would spend similar monies annually and assist a  further range of New Performers, through buying 'Merch' in the form of the Vinyl LP. 

At present the Independent New Performers are in general, needing to play live venues to keep themselves fed and pay for the time spent being creative.   

@bdp24, I also saw that McCoury/Earle lineup in Madison, WI and it was transcendent. 

@bdp24 Hey -- I saw that Steve Earle/Del McCoury Band show in West Hollywood!  My brain, though, can't quite remember if it indeed happened at The House of Blues. I keep thinking it was either the Roxy or the Troub. But I'll take your word for it. I just went searching for the LP or CD, too. No luck.

There is a lot of over-generalization in the article, not to mention outright misinformation (the writer is obviously unaware of Chad Kassem and his trio of LP businesses, as well as those of Speakers Corner, Blue Note, Intervention, VMP, dozens of other labels doing fantastic reissues and new releases). I can’t speak to the world-wide situation, but at Portland’’s oldest record store (Music Millennium, continuously open since 1969) LP’s (everyone is calling them "vinyls", which is not just silly, but inaccurate. LP’s are NOT made of vinyl, but rather Poly Vinyl Chloride---PVC. Am I being too literal? ;-) are selling very well.

I was a customer at MM in 1976-8, when the store inventory was predominantly LP’s (remember, this was pre-CD). By the time I briefly returned to Portland (2009-10), LP’s had been relegated to the mezzanine level of the store, the entire ground floor filled with CD’s. Today the mezzanine is all LP’s---the Jazz, Blues, Gospel, Country, Folk/Bluegrass, International, and Classical genres. The ground floor is now about 2/3 LP’s---Rock, Oldies, Soul/R & B, etc. genres, the other 1/3 CD’s.

Whenever I’m in the store (I was there just this afternoon, to watch Freedy Johnson do a live performance on the mezzanine, and have him autograph my copy of his new album he was promoting. Everyone in line was buying the LP, not a single CD.) the CD aisles are almost empty, all the customers in the LP aisles. Lots of parents and their kids---and of course youngish hipsters, all flipping through the LP’s in the bins.

In addition to Freedy’s latest, I bought the new Del McCoury (the Bluegrass singer who hit the big time when he joined Bill Monroe’s band in 1963. It was The Del McCoury band whom Steve Earle did his Bluegrass album with, and then toured. One of the best live shows I’ve seen & heard; Steve and the DMB, all playing acoustic instruments and singing into one large capsule mic, at The House Of Blues in Hollywood. Fantastic!), and used albums by J.J. Cale (Troubadour, 1st pressing on Shelter Records, $20), The Secret Sisters---produced by T Bone Burnett ($10, still in plastic bag), and for $5 each albums by Larry McNeely---a former sideman to Glen Campbell, Jerry Reed, John Denver, Roger Miller, Mac Davis, and Tennessee Ernie Ford, Kate & Anna McGarrigle---produced by Joe Boyd (Carthage Records), Kinky Friedman, Cheap Trick, The Rowans (a white label promo on Asylum Records!), Gary & Randy Scruggs---Earl’s sons, and a couple of Joe Ely’s (on Hightone Records---the greatly missed out-of-business Roots music label). In addition, in the mail on their way to me are the 4-LP Bootleg Volume 17 boxset by Dylan and a dozen new releases, ordered from various online LP retailers.

You Tube is full of videos by LP buyers sharing their passion for LP’s. As the old expression goes, don’t believe everything you read.